On 6 March 2025, the Home Office published new statistics for 2024 about potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) – the UK’s identification and support system for victims of modern slavery.
Here are the initial key takeaways:
- 2024 saw a record high in the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred to the NRM – 19,125 people were referred, an increase of 13% compared to 2023 (16,990)
- There was also a record high in terms of the number of adults who refused consent to enter the NRM in 2024 and were instead referred under the ‘duty to notify’ process, at 5,598, up 14% from 2023 (4,929).
- Nearly a third of all referrals were for children (31%; 5,999, slight drop from 35% the previous year) and three quarters of all referrals (74%; 14,157) were male.
- The most common form of exploitation reported by potential victims was labour exploitation, accounting for nearly a third of all referrals (32%; 6,153) and up 8% from last year, to its highest ever level.
- The top three nationalities for potential victims were UK (23%; 4,441), Albanian (13%; 2,492) and Vietnamese (11%; 2,153), though there was an overall drop of 39% in the number of Albanians referred to the NRM compared to last year (from 4,055 to 2,492)
- For the first time, the number of potential victims reporting exploitation took place overseas (44%; 8,372) has overtaken the number of potential victims reporting exploitation took place exclusively in the UK (43%; 8,268). Libya was the most common country cited as the location of overseas exploitation (3,212 referrals). Under international law, the UK has obligations to identify and support every potential victim of modern slavery, regardless of where the exploitation took place.
- 2024 saw the lowest proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions made in a single year since the NRM began. This is an initial decision on cases referred into the NRM, about whether the Home Office determines there are reasonable grounds to believe someone is a victim of modern slavery. Of the 20,090 reasonable grounds decisions issued in 2024, 53% were positive. In recent years, around 9 in 10 referrals were issued positive reasonable grounds decisions but in 2023, the Home Office updated and revised the threshold for making reasonable grounds decisions.
- For those receiving a negative reasonable grounds decision, the most common reason was that the referral had insufficient information to meet the standard of proof required (52%; 4,954). Five per cent of these cases (528) were given a negative decision on the grounds the referral was not credible. In addition, in 2024, only 13 people were disqualified from the protections of the NRM on the grounds of ‘bad faith’. Taken together these data points suggest that there is not widespread abuse of the modern slavery system, as had been claimed by some in the past.
- In 2024, the Home Office made 17,304 conclusive grounds decisions, which is the final decision to confirm whether someone is a victim of modern slavery. 56% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive.
- In 2024, 242 people were disqualified from the protections of the NRM on ‘public order grounds’. These decisions implement the ‘public order disqualification’ measures in the 2022 Nationality and Borders Act, not those in the 2023 Illegal Migration Act which strengthens them, but which are yet to be operationalised (and which the Borders and Security Bill retains)
- There are signs that the Home Office’s investment in more caseworkers is beginning to reduce the size of the backlog of people in the NRM system who are awaiting a decision. Provisional data shows that as of 17 February 2025 there were 15,301 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions having been issued positive reasonable grounds decisions; this is a decrease of 39% (9,942) when compared to 16 February 2024 and a 48% (13,974) decrease since the peak in quarter 4, 1 October to 31 December 2022
Commenting on the stats, Liz Williams, Head of Policy Impact at the Modern Slavery and Human Rights Policy and Evidence Centre (PEC) at the University of Oxford, said:
- On the growing numbers overall:
“We’ve grown accustomed to rising statistics on identified cases of modern slavery. But each of these cases represent a harsh reality of people exploited in severe conditions, facing threats, violence and intimidation.
“The high number of children being referred as potential victims, most of them UK nationals, continues to shock. It’s a stark reminder of the urgent need to protect them from exploitation.
Our funded research indicates that many exploited children have special educational needs and disabilities. Education and social support systems need more investment and focus to safeguard children way before they are put at risk of being targeted.”
- On the system to identify and support potential victims:
"The stats show a system that has long been stretched and under pressure but in transition.
“We welcome the commitment of the new government to reform the system and the first signs that the decision-making backlog is being addressed, which the Minister confirmed at our conference yesterday.
“However, there are still concerning issues , for example, the record number of adults choosing not to be referred for statutory support. Part of the possible answer is low trust in authorities but we need more evidence to understand the full picture.
“The drop in proportion of positive decisions identifying people as victims of modern slavery is also concerning, we need more research to fully understand the reasons behind it and will continue to monitor how the system is being reformed.
- On stats showing better prevention is needed:
“These stats show that more investment is needed in preventing modern slavery in the first place.
“The new Government has a big opportunity to reset the UK’s response to modern slavery. By making prevention of exploitation its central pillar it has a chance to reduce harms and to improve outcomes for affected people and communities.”
